Wishful thinking in effective decision making

نویسندگان

  • Jonathan Y. Ito
  • David V. Pynadath
  • Liz Sonenberg
  • Stacy Marsella
چکیده

Creating agents that act reasonably in uncertain environments is a primary goal of agent-based research. In this work we explore the theory that wishful thinking can be an effective strategy in uncertain and competitive decision scenarios. Specifically, we present the constraints necessary for wishful thinking to outperform Expected Utility Maximization and take instances of popular games from Game-Theoretic literature showing how they relate to our constraints and whether they can benefit from wishful-thinking.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Development of wishful thinking in 7 to 14 year-old Iranian children and adolescences

Several studies have investigated wishful thinking or desirability bias in children and adults, while no research has been conducted on the evolution of wishful thinking in childhood and adolescence. The present research aims to investigate the evolution of wishful thinking in Iranian children and adolescents aged 7-14. This study is an evolutional one with a cross- sectional method. The statis...

متن کامل

Self-deceptive decision making: normative and descriptive insights

Computational modeling of human belief maintenance and decision-making processes has become increasingly important for a wide range of applications. We present a framework for modeling the psychological phenomenon of selfdeception in a decision-theoretic framework. Specifically, we model the self-deceptive behavior of wishful thinking as a psychological bias towards the belief in a particularly...

متن کامل

A Bounded Rationality Account of Wishful Thinking

People tend towards wishful thinking, in which they overestimate the probability of favorable outcomes and underestimate the probability of unfavorable outcomes. Many explanations for this phenomenon focus on its irrationality. We explore whether wishful thinking could actually help people make better decisions given that they have limited cognitive resources. We consider a situation in which m...

متن کامل

Self-relevance and wishful thinking: facilitation and distortion in source monitoring.

When making source attributions, people tend to attribute desirable statements to reliable sources and undesirable statements to unreliable sources, a phenomenon known as the wishful thinking effect (Gordon, Franklin, & Beck, 2005). In the present study, we examined the influence of wishful thinking on source monitoring for self-relevant information. On one hand, wishful thinking is expected, b...

متن کامل

Comparison of Critical Thinking and Clinical Decision Making Skills Among the Last-Semester Nursing Students and Practicing Nurses in Sabzevar University of Medical Sciences

Introduction: Critical thinking and clinical decision making skills lead to care improvement and the application of nursing process. Previous studies have indicated that critical thinking and clinical decision making skills among nurses and students are low and studies comparing nurses and students in this regard have yielded inconsistent results. Thus this survey aimed to compare critical thin...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2010